Don’t let the mainstream media keep lying to you, there is still a path to the Democratic nomination, and the Presidency, for Senator Bernie Sanders.
The battle for the Democratic nomination is coming upon its last few contests, while poll after poll continues to show Bernie Sanders doing better than Hillary over Trump. Rallies for Hillary Clinton are barely squeaking by the one to two thousand mark, while Bernie Sanders has had crowds this past week and a half, number around 20,000 people, if not more. Bernie’s campaign is now consistently bringing in the same level of people, if not more people, than Obama’s 2008 Presidential run.
We all know Bernie would defeat Trump, in a fair election, by a decent margin no less than 5% nationwide. Some polls have Bernie ahead of Trump of upwards of 12%. This article is not to question if a Bernie/Trump face off would be a win for Bernie, because it would. More so, this article hypothetically discusses if Bernie Sanders could win as a third party candidate, if he did not get the nomination. This is something in and of itself which may not be possible, due to a small law called, The Sore Losers Law. The Sore Losers Law does not restrict write-in ballots however. The data below exemplifies why the #BernieorBust campaign is so important.
Here are the numbers below:
153 million voters were estimated to be registered voters in 2013. We will go with the assumption of high voter turnout of 133 million like the 2012 election.
Multiple sources have cited that anywhere from 40-45% of the registered voters in this country are registered as Independents. If we use 42% as the baseline we get the following figure:
0.42 x 133,000,000=55,860,000 Independents
Since both the Republican & Democratic Parties share the last 58% roughly equally, we will split this as 29% for each party. Here is the breakdown:
0.58 x 133,000,000= 77,140,000 Democratic & Republican voters.
Divide that number by two:
38,570,000 voters for each party
Each candidate with each party has varying success. With these figures on voters per party, we can safety assume based on other polls during primaries, the following conclusions:
Republicans- 79% (30,470,300 votes)
Independents-20% (11,172,000 votes)
Democrats- 2% (771,400 votes)
Republicans-11% (4,242,700 votes)
Independents-12% (6,703,200 votes)
Democrats- 63% (24,299,100 votes)
Republicans-4% (1,542,800 votes)
Independents- 62% (34,633,200 votes)
Democrats- 31% (11,956,700 votes)
It’s important to mention, that none of these figures equal 100% per party, as Jill Stein, and other party leaders will be running in the election capturing roughly 5% of the total popular vote.
Since Bernie does exceptionally well, popular vote wise, Bernie would be the clear winner. We all know however, that the popular vote is not what wins elections. In addition, Bernie would have to register as an Independent candidate to run based on these figures (eight states do not allow for write-ins, granted these states are primarily in the south, where Trump would do well).
Here are the totals for the three candidates:
Bernie Sanders- 48,132,700 votes (36.2%)
Donald Trump- 42,413,700 votes (31.9%)
Hillary Clinton- 35,245,000 votes (26.5%)
Total- 125,791,400 votes or 94.58%
This leaves over 5.4% for other candidates, of which I’m sure half would go to Jill Stein.
The likelihood of these three candidates running for the November general election is debatable. With the proper traction the Sanders campaign has, it is a possibility that Bernie can win. Add the unfavorably of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, and you have a good part of the Independent voting populace backing Bernie Sanders. Keep in mind, these numbers are based off of whether or not an equal or similar percentage of voters for each party stated above, come out to vote.
The point is, even aside from the nomination, there is a chance, even with write-in ballots, or if Bernie can find a way to run third party.
Never give up. Never surrender.